隧道突泥涌水情景构建及演化状态预测模型*

为实现对隧道突泥涌水事故的有效管控，基于情景分析理论，采用演化路径网络和演化矩阵模型，针对隧道突泥涌水灾害进行情景推演预测。将隧道突泥涌水情景要素归类为孕灾环境、致灾因子、驱动要素和承灾体，研究各要素的属性参数；基于承灾体损失将隧道突泥涌水情景分为6级，分析灾害情景的演化规律；建立灾害全过程的演化路径网络，构建预测灾害情景状态的演化矩阵模型，提出情景状态等级的概率分布算法。将该模型应用于雅叶高速公路折多山隧道，结果表明:该方法可准确地模拟隧道突泥涌水全过程的演化路径及情景状态，预测结果有助于隧道建设单位摸清既有能力和明确防灾任务，为其应急能力建设提供重要依据。

Scenario construction and evolution state prediction model of water and mud inrush in tunnel

In order to effectively control the risk of water and mud inrush in tunnel,the evolution paths network and evolution matrix model were used for the scenario deduction prediction on the water and mud inrush in tunnel based on the scenario analysis theory.Firstly,the scenario elements of water and mud inrush in tunnel were classified into the disaster-pregnant environment,disaster-causing factors,driving factors and disaster-bearing carriers,and the attribute parameters of all elements were studied.Secondly,the scenario of water and mud inrush in tunnel was divided into six levels based on the loss of disaster-bearing carriers,and the evolution law of disaster scenario was analyzed.Then,the evolution paths network for the whole process of disaster and the evolution matrix model for predicting the disaster scenario state were established,and the probability distribution algorithm of scenario state level was presented.Finally,the model was applied to Zheduo mountain tunnel of Ya’an-Yecheng expressway.The results showed that the method could accurately simulate the evolution paths and scenario state of the whole process of water and mud inrush in tunnel.The prediction results are helpful for tunnel construction units to find out the existing capability and make clear the disaster prevention tasks,and provide important basis for the construction of emergency capability.