考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散研究*

为研究恐慌状态下人员抢行行为对整体疏散效果的影响，建立考虑抢行行为的恐慌状态人员疏散元胞自动机模型，基于恐慌情绪算法将人员分为恐慌者和非恐慌者，通过改变恐慌者抢行概率体现抢行行为，并模拟仿真分析初始人员密度、恐慌情绪转化、抢行概率对人员疏散影响，对疏散过程中特殊现象进行分析。研究结果表明:人员密度适中时，抢行行为能够减少恐慌者数量，加快恐慌者转换进程，疏散时间随抢行概率增加而减小，疏散过程中存在恐慌聚集和两端疏散现象。研究结果可为突发事件下人员紧急疏散提供理论支持。

Research on evacuation of people in panic state considering rush behavior

In order to study the influence of personnel rush behavior on the overall evacuation effect in the panic state,a cellular automata model of personnel evacuation in the panic state considering the rush behavior was established.The personnel were divided into the panic personnel and non-panic personnel through the panic emotion algorithm,and the rush behavior was reflected by changing the rush probability of panic personnel.The influence of initial personnel density,panic emotion conversion and rush probability on the personnel evacuation was simulated by the model,and the special phenomena in the evacuation process were analyzed.The results showed that when the personnel density was moderate,the rush behavior could reduce the number of panic personnel,accelerate the transition process of panic personnel,and the evacuation time decreased with the increase of rush probability.There were the phenomena of panic aggregation and evacuation at both ends in the evacuation process.The research results can provide theoretical support for the personnel emergency evacuation under emergencies.