城市道路的人员疏散风险评价研究*

为量化评价城市道路在人员疏散过程中存在的风险，以支持城市道路规划，以及有效开展应急疏散管理，提出1种城市道路的人员疏散风险评价方法。该方法设定多种影响因素，构建道路疏散风险评价函数，并结合临界簇模型，运用实时交通态势数据与动态人口数据，评估不同时间的道路疏散风险。以上海市外环线内区域为研究区，开展道路疏散风险综合评价与突发事件情景下的道路疏散风险评价。结果表明:该方法可以有效综合多种影响因素，空间量化表达道路的人员疏散风险。评价结果能够为城市道路设施规划提供帮助，为提升城市应急疏散管理效率，降低事故的伤亡与损失提供决策依据。

Research on risk assessment of personnel evacuation on urban roads

In order to quantitatively assess the risk of personnel evacuation process on the urban roads,so as to support the urban road planning and effectively carry out the emergency evacuation management,a risk assessment method of personnel evacuation on the urban roads was proposed.Multiple influencing factors were set,and a risk evaluate function of road evacuation was established.Combined with the critical cluster model(CCM),the real-time traffic status data and dynamic population data were applied to assess the road evacuation risk at different time.Taking the inner region of the Shanghai Outer Ring Road as the research area,the comprehensive assessment of road evacuation risk and the assessment in the emergency situations were conducted.The results showed that the method could effectively integrate various influencing factors to spatially and quantitatively express the personnel evacuation risk of road.The assessment results can support the urban road facilities planning,and provide decision-making basis for improving the efficiency of urban emergency evacuation management and reducing the accident casualties and losses.