基于海洋环境要素的动态航行风险评估*

为得到精确动态航行评估结果，将多准则决策方法与GIS风险制图技术相结合，以5种海洋环境要素（风场、洋流、海浪、海温和海底地形）作为评估因子，通过数据时空插值法和层次分析法（AHP，Analytic Hierarchy Process）确定评估因子权重，提出权重优化算法改进权重值，进而得到最优动态航行风险评估结果。结果表明:动态航行风险评估结果能够直观展示海域航行风险空间分布和变化趋势，评估具有实时性和连续性，可以为海域恶劣海况提供足够预警能力。

Dynamic navigation risk assessment based on marine environmental elements

In order to obtain the better dynamic navigation assessment results,a combination way of multi criteria decision making method and GIS risk mapping technology was adopted,and five marine environmental elements (wind field,ocean currents,waves,sea temperature and seabed topography) were used as assessment factors.The weights of assessment factors were determined by using the data spatio temporal interpolation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.A weight optimization algorithm was put forward to improve the weight value,and then the optimal dynamic navigation risk assessment results were obtained.The results showed that the dynamic navigation risk assessment results could visually display the spatial distribution and change trend of maritime navigation risk,and the assessment was real time and continuous,which provides sufficient early warning capabilities for the bad sea conditions in the sea.