安全信息学视域下安全舆情演化及引导策略研究*

为正确引导和控制负面安全舆情，基于安全信息学与舆情理论，利用事故树分析方法研究安全舆情演化过程，计算负面安全舆情最小割集、最小径集和结构重要度，提出安全舆情引导方法。结果表明:利用最小割集得到负面安全舆情产生原因组合，利用最小径集得到避免负面安全舆情产生最低限度事件组合，通过结构重要度得到系统改进重点及优化顺序；在事故树中增加安全舆情审核和引导组织、安全事件亲自确认、专业意见领袖3个最小径集，以期减少负面安全舆情，促进公共安全。

Research on evolution and guidance strategies of safety public opinion from perspective of safety informatics

In order to guide and control the negative safety public opinion,taking the safety informatics and public opinion theory as the basis,the concept of safety public opinion was clarified,and its participation factors and evolution stages were analyzed.The evolution process of safety public opinion was studied by using the fault tree analysis method,then the minimum cut set,minimum path set and structural importance of negative safety public opinion were calculated,and a guidance method of safety public opinion was proposed.The results showed that 30 ways to generate the negative safety public opinion were obtained from the minimum cut set,then 5 methods for the guidance of negative safety public opinion was obtained from the minimum path set,and the focus of system improvement and the optimization sequence were obtained through the structural importance.Meanwhile,three minimum path sets were innovatively added into the accident tree to reduce the negative safety public opinion and promote the public safety,including the review and guidance organization of safety public opinion,personal confirmation of safety incidents and professional opinion leaders.