基于多主体仿真的重点城区脏弹袭击风险分析*

为研究“脏弹”恐怖袭击风险演化过程中的影响因素，针对重点城区“脏弹”恐怖袭击的预防需求，建立包含恐怖组织、防御力量及承灾载体的多主体仿真模型，通过实例分析恐怖组织在不同情景下的袭击成功概率，研究巡逻盘查、便衣侦查、安检等预防手段的风险补偿能力。结果表明:以室外人群为袭击目标时，袭击成功概率与袭击者对人员伤亡的预期值高度相关；以建筑物内部人员为袭击目标时，袭击者与建筑物之间的空间距离是影响袭击成功概率的重要因素，通过合理的城市空间规划可以在一定程度上实现对该类型恐怖袭击的风险补偿。研究结果可为公安及城市应急管理部门的相关工作提供决策支持。

Risk analysis on dirty bomb attack in key urban areas based on multi-agent simulation

In order to study the influence factors for the risk evolution process of“dirty bomb”terrorist attack,focusing on the prevention requirements of the“dirty bomb”terrorist attack in key urban areas,a multi-agent simulation model including the terrorist organization,defense forces and hazard-affected carriers was established.The probabilities of successful attack by the terrorist organization under different scenarios were analyzed through the case,and the risk compensation capability of various prevention methods such as patrol check,plainclothes investigation,security check,etc.were studied.The results showed that if the outdoor crowd was taken as the attack object,the success probability was significantly associated with the expected casualties by the attackers.If the people inside building were taken as the attack object,the spatial distance between the building and the attackers was a key factor affecting the probability of successful attack,and the risk compensation to this type of terrorist attack could be realized to some extent through the reasonable urban spatial planning.The results can provide decision-making support for the relevant work of public security and urban emergency management departments.