储气库注采管柱螺纹失效动态风险评估*

为解决储气库注采管柱螺纹失效问题，识别注采管柱螺纹失效致因与后果，基于蝴蝶结和贝叶斯网络方法构建注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险分析模型，采用模糊集理论计算模型变量先验概率，并评估注采管柱失效后果概率，从而推断注采管柱螺纹失效关键致因因素；引入先兆数据，评估注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险态势。结果表明:气体中携带固体颗粒、上螺纹速度过快、注采温度高、地层断裂等13个因素对螺纹失效风险影响较大；螺纹失效概率逐渐增大，螺纹失效后果也越来越严重，需要监控螺纹失效关键致因以降低螺纹失效的风险。

Dynamic risk assessment on thread failure of injection-production tubular string in gas storage depot

In order to solve the problem of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string in gas storage depot,the causes and consequences of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string were identified,and a dynamic failure risk analysis model of thread on the injection-production tubular string was constructed based on the Bow-tie and Bayesian network methods.The fuzzy set theory was used to calculate the prior probabilities of model variables,then the failure consequence probability of injection-production tubular string was evaluated,and the key causation factors of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string were inferred.The precursor data were introduced to evaluate the dynamic failure risk situation of thread on the injection-production tubular string.The results showed that a total of 13 factors including the gas bring solid particles,the high velocity for operating thread,high injection-production temperature,ruptured stratum,and the failure probability of thread increased gradually,so the consequence of thread failure became more and more serious.The key causes of thread failure should be monitored to reduce the risk of thread failure.