系统安全投入与事故率可能性边界模型研究

安全科学是一门新兴的交叉学科，根据安全科学的哲学原理和安全科学基本理论，结合经济学原理，分析安全投入与事故率的规律，在此基础上建立安全投人与事故率可能性边界模型，即“P-S”模型。详细分析和描述了“P—S”模型中各参数的安全意义，推导出“P—S”模型的基本表达式，并定量分析了表达式中参数的取值情况，得出系统存在合理安全投入区间、最佳安全投入和最佳安全经济效益事故率。通过分析发现模型可以客观反应系统的安全投入与事故率之间的对立统一规律，安全投入与事故率“P—S”模型的研究对科学、有效的进行安全投入，提高系统的安全效益和经济效益，降低事故率具有一定的意义。

Study on system safety input and accident rate possibility frontier model

Safety science is a new developing subject, according to the philosophy principle of safety science and safety science basic theories, combining with the principles of economics, the rules of safety input and accidents rate were analyzed, safety input and accidents rate possibility frontier model was set up-＂ P-S＂ model. The meaning of parameters were analyzed and described in detail, and the basic expression of ＂P-S＂ model was derived. Then the expression parameter values in different circumstances were analysed quantitatively. It was obtained that there were reasonable safety input interval, optimum safety input and optimum safety economic benefit accidents rate in the systems. It showed that the model may reflect the law of unity of opposites of system safety input and accidents rate objectively. The research has certain implications for scientific and effective safety input, improving the safety and economic benefit of the system and reducing accidents rate.