城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链研究

为了研究城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链，对灾害链的形成机理进行分析，建立灾害链模型，并通过计算灾害链发生概率对灾害链断链减灾方法进行研究。结果表明，城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链可分为致灾环、激发环、损害环三部分；灾害链中因管道裂纹导致的中毒窒息灾害事故、管道穿孔导致的中毒窒息灾害事故及火灾等链条的发生概率较高；致灾环是灾害链断链减灾的关键环节，在城市安全管理中应落实应急预案制度并加强对城市居民的防灾减灾安全教育力度。

Research on disaster chain of leakage disaster in urban gas pipeline

In order to study the disaster chain of leakage disaster in urban gas pipeline, a model of disaster chain was built by analyzing the formation mechanism of disaster chain. The chain-cutting disaster mitigation method was studied by calculating the occurrence probability of disaster chain. The results showed that the disaster chain of leakage disaster in urban gas pipeline can be divided into three parts, the catastrophability ring, the triggering ring and the damage ring. The occurrence probability of the accidents such as the asphyxiation and poisoning caused by pipeline crack or pipeline perforation, and fire in the disaster chain is higher. The catastrophability ring is the key link of disaster chain for chain-cutting disaster mitigation. The emergency plan system should be implemented in urban safety management, and the effort of safety education about disaster prevention and mitigation to the residents should be strengthened.