基于均生函数的大坝水位安全预测

大坝水位变化特别是汛期水位的剧烈变化不仅会对大坝的安全运营造成很大影响，甚至会威胁到下游和周边居民的生命财产安全，因此必须对大坝的水位进行安全监测。由于大坝的水位受天气和降水的影响明显，具有一定的周期性，因此，利用均生函数周期性记忆的特点，建立时间序列与均生函数之间的回归方程，构造预报模型的方法，能准确预测出水位的变化趋势，对一些变化很大的趋势甚至也能准确预测。该方法在大坝安全预测中的应用不仅能给出先导性信息，也为大坝的安全预测工作提供一种新方法。

Safety prediction on water level of dam based on mean generating function

The variation in water level of dam, especially the drastic variation in flood season may cause a great influence on the safe operation of dam, even threaten the downstream and the life and property safety of surrounding residents, therefore, it is necessary to monitor the water level of dam. The water level of dam can be influenced by weather and precipitation obviously, and it has a certain periodicity. In view of this, based on the characteristic of periodic memory in mean generating function, a regression equation between the time series and mean generating function was established, and the prediction model was constructed. The results showed that the proposed method can accurately predict the variation trend of water level, and even predict the trend with large variation accurately. The application of this method in safety prediction of dam can not only give pilot information, but also provide a new method for safety prediction of dam.