基于灰色聚类法的地铁运营安全趋势分析

为评估地铁运营安全水平，掌握地铁运营风险变化趋势，采用灰色聚类法对某地铁线路运营一年以来每个月份的安全水平进行了分级评价。选取对地铁日常运营具有重要影响的设备设施故障作为评价指标，评价方法挖掘地铁运营以来的历史数据信息，体现了设备设施故障变化的时间特性，减少了安全评价中的主观性。将地铁运营安全水平分为五个安全等级，选取15%、35%、50%、65%、85%作为各安全等级的累积百分频率特征点，建立白化权函数得到各评价指标的灰类白化值。结合各设备设施的指标权重，得到了地铁线路运营一年来每个月份的安全等级情况。该方法为分析地铁运营安全趋势提供了参考。

Analysis of the safety trend of metro operation based on grey cluster method

In order to estimate the safety level of the metro operation and obtain the risk trend of the metro, this pa- per performed the safety grading evaluation of a subway line for one year operation by the gray cluster method. Five critical equipment failures which have significant impact on the operation are selected as the evaluation indexes. On basis of the historical data, the grey cluster evaluation contributes to decrease subjective and in which the time characters of the equipment failures are reflected. The safety level of the metro operation is divided into five grades, which corresponds to the threshold points of 15% ,35% ,50% ,65% ,85% in the cumulative frequency curves. The whiten functions are constructed to get the grey values for each evaluation index. Combine the weight of the evalua- tion indexes, the safety grade for each month is calculated. The grey cluster method can provide reference for the a- nalysis of the safety trend of the metro operation.