大型活动客流监测预警方法研究

随着我国经济文化的发展,大型活动日益增多,大型活动中人群拥挤事故作为大型活动事故预防控制的重点,逐渐引起人们的重视.本文从观众结构、时间分布、空间分布及运动性特征四方面分析了大型活动客流的相关特性；论述了大型活动安全监测的内容与方法,确定了安全监测的重点部位；从安全容量、安全密度、安全速度、密度变化率和速度变化率五个角度提出了大型活动客流风险的预警方法,并比较了各类方法的优缺点.研究成果为保障我国大型活动的顺利召开,避免拥挤踩踏事故的发生有一定的借鉴意义.

Study on method for monitoring and early-warning of passenger flow in large-scale activities

With the development of economy and culture in China now,large-scale activities are increasing very quickly,so how to prevent and avoid stampede accidents in large-scale activities attract more and more attentions.From four aspects,the composing characters of passengers’ flow in large-scale activities were analyzed,including personnel structure,time distribution,spatial distribution and motion features.It also showed that using the constructed passengers’ information monitoring and risk early-warning system to prevent the stampede accident and analysis the monitoring content in large-scale activities was feasible,and the key position and monitoring method were demonstrated.In addition,the indexes constitution of early-warning were defined,which included safety capacity,safety density,safety speed,changing ratio of density and changing ratio of speed.The quantitative analysis of these indexes was conducted.All these results have significant influence to prevent such accidents and constituting the emergency respons