基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析，探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径，基于社会技术系统理论，建立宏观工效学模型，通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献，从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发，识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素；运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络，对各因素节点中心度进行计算，分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度；采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习，找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中，存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位，政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺，政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理，从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。

Study on risk paths of prevention and control on epidemic situation in resumption enterprises based on socio technical system

In order to analyze the causal factors of risk in the prevention and control on epidemic situation of the resumption enterprises and explore the risk paths,a macro ergonomic model based on the theory of socio technical system was established.Through consulting and analyzing the national,local government,enterprises documents and related literatures,16 causal factors of out of control epidemic situation in the resumption enterprises were identified from 5 subsystems of personnel,technology,organization and management,internal environment and external environment.The social network analysis (SNA) was used to build a relationship network for the prevention and control on epidemic situation of the resumption enterprises,then the centrality of each factor node was calculated,and the position and influence degree of each node in the network were analyzed.The Bayesian network (BN) was used for the parameter learning and inference learning to find out the largest causes chain of the out of control epidemic situation in the resumption enterprises.The results showed that in the network of out of control epidemic situation of enterprises that resume work,there are 3 longest risk paths.They are ineffective government supervision and management→insufficient preparation of epidemic prevention materials→inadequate daily supervision,ineffective government supervision and management→lack of epidemic prevention propaganda and training→employees lack knowledge about epidemic prevention,and ineffective government supervision and management→lack of epidemic prevention propaganda and training→inadequate daily supervision.The results can help the resumption enterprises to manage the factors in the longest risk paths,and thus effectively provide theoretical support for the epidemic prevention of the resumption enterprises.