基于FMECA与模糊FTA的余热锅炉安全分析

为了保证余热锅炉安全运行，预防爆炸事故发生，利用FMECA方法和模糊FTA方法，研究余热锅炉事故致因。通过对余热锅炉潜在危险因素的分析辨别，探讨设备故障类型、原因及相应处理方法，引入模糊FTA对余热锅炉爆炸事故定性和定量分析，进而构建了基于FMECA与模糊FTA的余热锅炉安全分析框架，并计算得出事故发生的模糊概率以及对基本事件的敏感性分析。研究表明，余热锅炉系统的可靠度大约为96.92%，未按规定排污，报警器失灵，安全阀压力连接管堵塞及除氧器不合格事件对顶事件发生概率的影响最大，从而为该系统的安全决策提供支持。

Safety analysis of waste heat boiler based on FMECA and fuzzy FTA

In order to ensure the safe operation of waste heat boiler and prevent explosion accident, the FMECA and fuzzy FTA methods were applied to study the accident causes of waste heat boiler. Through analysis and identification on potential risk factors of waste heat boiler, the types, reasons and corresponding solutions of equipment faults were explored. The fuzzy FTA was introduced to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the explosion accidents of waste heat boiler, the framework of safety analysis on waste heat boiler based on FMECA and fuzzy FTA was constructed, and the fuzzy probability of the accident and the sensitivity analysis on the basic events were also acquired. It showed that the reliability of waste heat boiler is approximately 96.92%, and the events including drain contamination without according to stipulations, malfunction of alarm, pressure connection tube plugging of safety valve and unqualified deaerator have the biggest impact on the occurrence probability of top event. It provides support for the safety decision of this system.