基于随机Petri网的跨组织应急协同模型构建

突发事件应急处置需要公安、消防、医疗、交通等多个组织进行跨组织协同合作，以此实现跨部门的统一指挥、快速反应的应急响应行动，为城市突发事件应对、城市公共安全提供强有力的保障。利用随机Petri网的构建跨组织应急协同流程，根据确定可能出现的状态集，同构其相应的马尔科夫链；以汶川地震为例，根据可能出现状态的稳态概率及相关数学方法分析其均衡状态和变动规律，对应急响应的协同效果进行分析，根据评估结果提出事前应急协同控制与改进的措施，加强事前应急演练与培训，为提高突发事件应急响应协调能力提供理论支持。

Establishment of emergency coordination model across organizations based on stochastic Petri net

Emergency disposal needs the coordination cooperation amnong multiple organizations such as public security, fire control, medical treatment and traffic departments etc., in order to realize the emergency response action with unified command and rapid reaction across organizations, and provide strong guarantee for the urban public safety. The emergency coordination procedure across organizations was established based on stochastic Petri net, and the isomorphic corresponding Markov chain was put forward based on the possible state set. Taking the Wenchuan earthquake as example, the equilibrium state and change rule of emergency coordination system were analyzed based on the stability probability of possible state and the related mathematical methods, and the coordination effect of emergency response was analyzed. The control and improvement measures of emergency coordination in advance were put forward based on the evaluation results, like enhancing the emergency exercise and training before the emergency events. It provides a theoretical basis for improving the coordination capability of emergency response.