沟谷泥石流危险度计算公式的由来及其应用实例

首先介绍了本文作者提出的最新单沟泥石流危险度定量评价计算公式的由来,包括单沟泥石流危险度评价因子的选择,即主要因子的确定和次要因子的筛选,明确了各评价因子的作用,用权重系数方式表达各评价因子对泥石流危险度的影响。然后以2003年发生的四川省丹巴县鹅狼沟泥石流为例,对该沟泥石流危险度进行了定量评价,结果表明其为高度危险的泥石流沟。最后讨论了泥石流危险度计算的经验公式和理论公式及可能遇到的有关问题。

Quantitative Assessment on Site-specific Debris Flow Hazard and Application

This paper presents selection principle of the factors for assessing site-specific debris flow hazardousness,including determination of primary factors and selection of secondary factors.The study shows the function of chosen factors and their influences on the hazardousness.Consequently,the hazard assessment for site-specific debris flow was presented.Taking the Elang ravine where occurred a large debris flow in 2003 in Danba county of Sichuan province as a study case,with the newest method of multi-factor assessment for site-specific debris flow hazardousness,the present paper quantitatively assesses the debris flow hazardousness of the ravine,which indicates it is of high hazardousness.Finally,the differences of the theoretic and empirical calculation equations for site-specific debris flow hazardousness,and the technical difficulties and their measures in the assessment are discussed.