时间集中度——一种短临及中期预报方法研究

本文针对常规地震学方法对强地震发生前地震活动的异常增强和异常平静特征的识别确定性差,较为模糊的不足,选用地震活动的正常水平为异常判别的指标,在常规方法基础上建立了识别地震活动异常增强和平静的从属函数—时间集中度T(X),通过对云南各主要地震区的短临及中期预报应用,表明该方法识别的异常比常规方法定量,清晰、效果明显.由于地震活动的异常增强和平静是较普遍的前兆异常特征,本方法具有一定的应用价值.

"TEMPORAL CONCENTRATION"——A SYMPTON FOR SHORT/MEDIUM TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING

In view of the ambiguity of conventional methods in seismology for sympton identification on anomalous calm or anomalous increase of siesmic activities prior to an earthquake taking place, we have attempted to use the normal level of seismic activities as an alternative indication and set up a subodinate function, namely the temporal concentration T(x)for the sympton identificalion mentioned above. The application in the majority of seismic regions in Yanan for short / medium term earthquake forecasting shows that the new method provides more explicit and quantified results than the conventional one does. As the anomalous calm and anomalous increase of seismic activcties geneally appear as the symptons of earthquakes, the method is worthy to be recommended.