基于多层次可拓评价法的城市燃气管线风险评价研究

以改进的肯特危险指数评分法对城市燃气管道的危险因素进行识分析,确立了城市燃气管线风险评价指标体系。将传统的可拓学方法改进为多层次可拓评价法,对其中的节域物元、关联度和等级评定程序进行了调整,并建立了相应的准则,对评价对象进行多级综合评价。通过多层次评价,可以获得不同子指标各自的风险等级以及评价对象总体的风险等级。以邯郸市某段燃气管线为例,运用城市燃气管线风险评价模型进行风险评价,得出其多层次风险等级值。通过对比及数据分析,证实了本文方法的可靠性。

Research on Risk Assessment of City Gas Pipeline with Multi-level Extenics

The risk factors of a city gas pipeline were indentified and studied with Kent score method to set up an index system for the risk assessment of the pipeline. The traditional extenies assessment has been extended to adjust the procedure for assessing the range elements, correlation, and rating, which is called the multi-level extenics assessment method; the corresponding guidelines have been set up for the multi-level integrated assessment of city gas pipelines. The risk grades of different sub-indexes of a city gas pipeline can be evaluated through the multi-level extenics assessment to determine the risk grade of the overall system. A gas pipeline in Handan city was taken for an example to demonstrate how to obtain the risk grades at different levels for the risk evaluation of city gas pipelines. Finally, the reliability of the method proposed in this paper has been validated through comparative analyses of real data.