| 中期强震预报的TIP方法原理及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆锦花,朱元清,郭育.中期强震预报的TIP方法原理及其应用[J].防灾减灾工程学报,1994(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆锦花 朱元清 郭育 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市地震局，上海市地震局，辽宁省地震局 助理工程师 上海 200062，上海 200062，沈阳 110031 |
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| 摘 要： | 在剖析了V.keilia-Borok研究小组近年来提出的强震预报(Time of increasedprobability)方法的基础上,本文简要地介绍了该方法的原理,采用1970-01-01至1991-12-31的全国地震目录,通过两种途径,用Tip方法对云南省和台湾省发生的7级以上(含7级)强震做了检验地震目录,通过表明Tip方法对强震的预报成功率还是较高的.在此基础上,我们又试验将该方法推广应用于云南省发生的6.5级以上(含6.5级)地震,结果表明适当修改地震流函数后,也可以得到较满意的结果.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 Tip方法 |
PRINCIPLE OF TIP METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEDIUM-LONG TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES |
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| Lu Jinhua,Zhu Yuanqing.PRINCIPLE OF TIP METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEDIUM-LONG TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES[J].Journal of Disaster Prevent and Mitigation Eng,1994(1). |
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| Authors: | Lu Jinhua Zhu Yuanqing |
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| Abstract: | The principle of time of increased probability (TIP) method is briefly presented in terms of analysis of the method of strong earthquake prediction propoeed recently by V. Keilis-Borok research group. The strong earthquakes (Ms≥7. 0) of Tawain and Yunnan provinces were retrievely predicted in two way with TIP method using earthquake caralog of China from 1 Jan. , 1970 to 31 Dec. . 1991. It has been shown that successful rate of strong earthquake prediction is still higher. Then , this method is extended to the application of prediction of the earthquakes (Ms≥6. 5) occurred in Yunnan province, and the satisfactory results may be attained so long as the function of earthquak flow is modified. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction TIP method |
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