基于灰色模型的电力变压器可靠性分析

针对电力变压器可靠性建模精度要求高、但可靠性数据较少这一问题,将电力变压器看做是一个灰色系统,分别利用灰色GM(1,1)模型和无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型建立电力变压器的可靠性分析的数学模型,通过数据拟合得到电力变压器相应的故障率数据,对拟合精度进行检验后发现本文提出的可靠性建模方法精度高、实现快捷,是一种有效可行的电力变压器可靠性研究方法,其分析结果可为制定电力变压器的维护与维修策略以及状态检修工作提供依据。

Reliability analysis on power transformer based on gray model

The power transformer is regarded as a grey system,and it requires high-precision reliability models. So a mathematical model for reliability analysis of power transformer is established based on unbiased grey GM (1,1) model and grey GM (1,1) model.Then, using power transformer reliability index statistics, through data fitting, the corresponding fault rate data of power transformer are obtained. After checking the fitting accuracy, it is found that the reliability modeling method has high precision and fast implementation. The modeling of power transformer system is effective, accurate and convenient, and the results provide a theoretical basis for repair strategy and condition-based maintenance.