中国水灾社会脆弱性评估方法的改进与应用--以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一,研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有重要的意义.但是,合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战.论文对评估社会脆弱性指数的研究现状进行了分析,指出了传统评估方法存在的问题,并尝试改进Hoovering评估模式.选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区,应用改进模型对研究区进行了社会脆弱性指数的评估.结果表明,长沙地区社会脆弱性从1980年至2000年基本处于下降趋势,但是在2002年和2003年增长迅速.2003年,长沙5区4县中社会脆弱性指数最大的是开福区,其次是长沙县,而宁乡县的社会脆弱性指数最低.

Improvement and application of vulnerability assessment methodology for flood hazards in China:using Changsha Prefecture as a case study

China is exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, including earthquake,flood,drought,and so on.The occurrence of hazards is not a phenomenon of recent time;however,understanding vulnerability,especially social vulnerability,is a relatively recent trend.In order to prevent disasters from happening,more attention should be paid on this changeful literature.This paper focuses on social vulnerability assessment,especially on constructing a social vulnerability index I_(sov).Based on Hoovering approach,a methodology with factor analysis and multiple regression analysis is proposed.By this novel methodology,a set of socioeconomic variables are reduced to a few independent factors,and a quantitative model of social vulnerability has been constructed.This model can assist decision-makers in better finding out the real driving factors and dynamic changes of I_(sov).There is a trial application to Changsha.All data are from 1980-2003.With this methodology,a dynamic process of I_(sov) in Changsha region is predicted,and I_(sov) of five districts and four counties in Changsha are compared.