三峡库区强降水的数值模拟及其在滑坡灾害预报中的应用

采用中尺度数值模式MM5V3对三峡库区22次强降水过程进行了数值模拟,以检验该模式对库区强降水的模拟能力和对高度场与温度场的模拟状况;详细介绍了该模式对一次强降水过程的模拟结果,并分析了该次降水的成因;将MMSV3模式与关于三峡库区滑坡发生的预报模型相结合,对发生在宜昌的一次滑坡灾害进行了预报试验。结果表明,中尺度数值模式MMSV3对三峡库区的强降水具有较好的模拟能力,能较好地刻画出降水的分布及其成因;模式预报的降水,结合库区滑坡预报方程成功预报了宜昌滑坡的发生;该方法为三峡库区滑坡灾害的预警提供了一种新思路。

Numerical simulation of severe precipitation in Three-gorge Reservoir area and its application to landslide forecast

In order to test the ability of meso-scale numerical model MMSV3 to simulate the severe precipitation as well as the height field and temperature field in Three-Gorge Reservoir area,simulations of twenty two heavy rain processes were made by using this model.Results of one of these simulations were stated in detail,and the causes of this precipitation process were analyzed.Precipitation forecasted by MMSV3 was combined with forecast equation of landslides in Three-Gorge Reservoir,and by using this method of combination an experiment to forecast a land- slide disaster occurred in Yichang region was carried out.Results show that with a pretty good ability to simulate se- vere precipitation in Three-Gorge Reservoir,the meso-scale numerical model MMSV3 can depict the distribution and causes of precipitation very well.The landslide occurred in Yichang was successfully forecasted by the combi- nation of precipitation model MMSV3 with landslide forecast equation.This method of combination puts forward a new way to early warn the landslide disasters occurring in Three-Gorge Reservoir area.