| 上海地区热带气旋灾情的评估和灾年预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢文芳.上海地区热带气旋灾情的评估和灾年预测[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):40-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢文芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市气象局 上海 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用数理统计方法，计算了１９４９￣１９９０年影响上海地区的热带气旋造成的人员伤亡、农田受淹、房屋倒损三方面的灾情指数。在此基础上划分了灾情等级，最后用灰色预测模型预测出在１９９７年上海将会发生一次中等（含３级）以上热带气旋灾情。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带风暴 灾害预测 上海市 热带气旋 |
ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF DISASTROUS LOSSES DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SHANGHAI |
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| Lu Wenfang.ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF DISASTROUS LOSSES DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SHANGHAI[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1995,4(3):40-45. |
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| Authors: | Lu Wenfang |
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| Abstract: | Three TC disastrous indices have been evaluated by use of the mathematical statistics in the paper, which correspond to casualties, flooded farmlands and collapsed houses caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) attacked on the Shanghai area during 1949 to 1990. Based on these indices, five grades of disastrous losses have been divided objectively. It. is predicted from the grey model that the Shanghai area would suffer a rather heavy losses (including 3rd grade) from TCs in 1997. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclones Hazard evaluation Hazard forecast Shanghai |
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