长江三峡水库诱发地震问题的分析研究

三峡水库是长江干流上一个巨型水利工程，拟定坝高１８５ｍ，正常蓄水位１７５ｍ，防洪库容２２１．５０亿ｍ＾３。三峡工程涉及的地质问题很多，水库诱发地震是其中主要要研究的几个问题之一。本文按三峡库萄 地质条件，将三峡库区分为三个库段进行讨论并采用灰色系统理论聚类分析的方法，对其诱发地震的强度进行了预测，认为三峡水库诱发地震的最危险库段的庙河－奉节段，其强度可达５．０￣６．０级。

Risk analysis of reservoir induced earthquake in the Three Gorge project

The Three Gorge reservoir is a large hydraulic project on the main Yangtze River.The dam height is 185m. The normal storage level is 175m and the flood controlling storagecapacity is 22.15Gm3. There are many geological problems relative to the project. The reservoirinducde earthquake is one of some important problems to be studied. According to the geologi-cal condition of the reservoir area, the paper discusses the problem with the area divided intothree sections and predicts the seismic intensity by the new method of Grey Clustering Theory.The result shows that the section from Miaohe to Fengrie is the most dangerous part to createinduced earthquake in whole Three Gorges reservoir. The intensity induccd wouId be between5.0 and 6.0.