强增温区及其形态变化对台风转向的指示作用

根据美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的温度资料，以近年来在我国华东登陆或近海转向的台风为例，对台风中心附近的异常增温与未来的移动方向进行了诊断分析。结果发现：中、高层台风中心附近的异常增温对台风未来的移动趋势有着很好的指示作用，尤其是对台风移动方向的突然改变具有预报意义，强增温区及脊（轴）线方向预示着台风未来的移动方向。由此得出了一个台风路径预报的新途径。

Indicative action of abnormal area of temperature increase and its pattern change on typhoon swerve

NCEP reanalysis data were used in this paper to diagnose the direction shift of typhoon that landfalled on the East China or moved off-shore in recent years as the examples.The authors used the temperature information of the NCEP data to analyze the relationship between the abnormal temperature increase around the typhoon center and the direction shift of the typhoon in future.The result shows that the abnormal temperature increase near the center of typhoon at high and middle layers can well indicate the typhoon's movement tendency in future,especially predict the sudden chang of the typhoon's direction.The stronger temperature increase area and the orientation of ridge(axis) line indicate the movement direction of the typhoon in future.Thus a new way of prediction of typhoon tracks is given.