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气候变暖与我国夏季洪涝灾害风险
引用本文:龚道溢.气候变暖与我国夏季洪涝灾害风险[J].自然灾害学报,1999,8(3):30-37.
作者姓名:龚道溢
作者单位:北京大学地球物理系!北京100871
基金项目:国家自然科学基金!49635190,中国博士后基金
摘    要:根据近十几年的月平均降水观测资料,对我国东部地区夏季降水的异常偏多和偏少的趋进行了分析,发现自70年代后期以来,东部地区降水量及降水异常偏多事件有明显的处升趋势;同时异常偏少事件则略有下降,但不显著。

关 键 词:气候变暖  气候影响  洪涝风险  中国  洪涝灾害

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE SUMMER FLOODING RISK IN CHINA
GONG Dao-yi.GLOBAL WARMING AND THE SUMMER FLOODING RISK IN CHINA[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1999,8(3):30-37.
Authors:GONG Dao-yi
Abstract:The relationship between the global warming and the severe summer rainfall over China is investigated using both the observed and simulated data. The rainfall over the eastern China increases significantly under the enhanced greenhouse condition, but the changes in the severe wet and severe dry events are not symmetry. When the summer rainfall over eastern China increases associating with the global warming,more severe wet events occur but no significantly less severe dry events likely to be expected. This implies that more floods will occur in China associating with the enhanced greenhouse effect, but in the same time, the risk of drought will not significantly decrease.Simulation results generally consist with the observations. But the magnitude of severe dry rainfall trend is stronger than that of severe wet rainfall trend in period 1977- 1998. These model results imply that the changes of the mean values may play more important role for the genesis of extreme events associated with the global warming in eastern China.
Keywords:climatic Warming  climatic effect  flooding risk  China
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