用马尔可夫链模型预测宁南山区旱情

宁南山区干旱频繁,严重影响农业生产。根据固原气象站35年(1957～1991)雨量资料,应用马尔可失链模型预测了该区1992～1996年的雨量与旱情趋势。结果表明,今后五年将出现三年春夏旱、二年正常,秋季有四年正常、一年多雨;预测的1992年4～6月和6～9月的干旱等级值与实际完全相符。该模型预测结果有较高可信度,对该区农业生产有参考价值。

DROUGHT SITUATION IN NINGNAN MOUNTAINOUS REGION PREDICTED BY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL

Drought occurs frequently and influences agricultural production in Ningnan Mountainous region. Base on the rainfall data of 35 years (1957-1991) at Guyan meteorological observation, the rainfall and drought condition in Guyan region for 1992 to 1996 year are predicted by Markov chain model. The results show that three drought years and two normal years in spring and summer, and four normal years and one rainy year in autumn will appear in this region'in the coming five years, and the predicted value is completely consistant with the actual drought situation in the region in April to June and June to Sept. of 1992 year. The prediction result of the model has a high reliability and provides a valuable reference to agriculture, production in the region.