| 山东省近600年旱涝霜雹数据库和超长期预报系统研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李新运,李勇先.山东省近600年旱涝霜雹数据库和超长期预报系统研究[J].自然灾害学报,1994,3(2):63-71. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李新运 李勇先 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东师范大学地理研究所 济南
(李新运，李勇先)，山东师范大学地理研究所 济南(尹建中) |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱、洪涝、霜冻、冰雹是山东省最主要的气象灾害,具有频率高、范围广、灾情重等特征。通过对历史资料的整理、编码和输入,建立了山东省近600年旱涝霜雹数据库、近40年降水数据库和预报因子数据库,并编制了数据管理和分析软件包,在国际著名的SAS统计分析系统基础上,建立了山东省旱涝霜雹超长期预报系统。本文简要论述灾害数据库和预报系统建立的技术方法及系统应用的初步结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 霜雹 数据库 预报系统 |
STUDY ON THE DATABASE OF DROUGHT, FLOOD, FROST AND HAIL DURING LAST 600 YEARS AND THE EXTRA LONG-RANGE FORECAST SYSTEM IN SHANDONG PROVINCE |
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| Li Xinyun Li Yongxian Yin Jianzhong.STUDY ON THE DATABASE OF DROUGHT, FLOOD, FROST AND HAIL DURING LAST 600 YEARS AND THE EXTRA LONG-RANGE FORECAST SYSTEM IN SHANDONG PROVINCE[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1994,3(2):63-71. |
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| Authors: | Li Xinyun Li Yongxian Yin Jianzhong |
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| Abstract: | Drought, flood, frost and hail are major meteorological disasters with the characteristics of high frequency, wide distribution and serious conditions etc. in Shandong Province. By arranging, coding and inputting history data, the 600-year's drought, flood, frost and hail database, the 40-year's precipitation database and the predict factors database are established. Relevant data manage and analysis software is developed. Supported by SAS (Statistics Analysis System, US), an extra long-range forecast system for flood, drought, frost and hail is also established. This paper briefly discusses on the technical methods of forming the disasters database, forecast system and the system's preliminary applied results. |
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| Keywords: | Drought and Flood Frost and hail Database Forecast system |
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