家户水灾社会脆弱性的评估方法研究——以长沙地区为例

中国是洪水灾害发生频繁的国家之一，研究水灾脆弱性对中国的灾害风险管理有着极为重要的意义。但是，合理评估脆弱性尤其是社会脆弱性却面临着极大的挑战。利用Hoovering改进模式，选择湘江流域的长沙地区为研究区，对研究区内的家户进行了社会脆弱性评价。结果表明，长沙市区的5个区内，高脆弱性家户最多的是天心区，最少的是雨花区。而就社区而言，高脆弱性家户最多的足裕南街街道和桔子洲街道。该结果反映了长沙不同行政区、社区社会脆弱性的差别，可供确定受援地区和受援人群及开展援助活动，乃至灾后日常风险管理参考。

Quantifying social vulnerability for flood hazard of households: a case study of Changsha, China

China is exposed to lots of natural hazards and the losses from them have escalated in the past decade, which prompts a reorientation of emergency management systems away from simple post-event response to vulnerability assessment and risk reduction. Therefore, social vulnerability assessment is more important and urgent for current hazard mitigation in China. This paper focuses on social vulnerability in the scale of household and introduces decision tree analysis to assess it. There is an application in the city of Changsha where floods occur often. In order to construct an effective model of household vulnerability assessment, twenty-eight social vulnerability indices, two hazard indices, three biophysical indices and three loss indices were selected. And all of them are collected through on-site questionnaire survey. In this study, social vulnerability of households in different districts of Changsha region is compared and the detail information of households with high vulnerability is shown.