区域火灾风险评估模型研究的理论与实践

首先立足于风险研究这个大背景下,在理论上对风险的概念进行了比较分析。然后针对水灾的风险根据其研究与实践中的侧重点不同,分为“损失可能性”学派、“未来损失”学派以及“损失不确定性”三个学派。在此基础上,分析了水灾风险的不确定性,从而提出了易于概率论和可能性理论的水灾风险定义,并将此定义应用于区域水灾风险评估的模型中。最后,探讨了水灾风险评估研究的问题与对其未来的展望。

The theory and applicationof model research of regional flood risk assessment

Based on the background of risk analysis, the definition of risk has been compared and discussed firstly. Secondly the research on risk of flood has been divided into three schools of though based on the emphasis of their study and application, which are "loss likelihood", "future loss" and "loss uncertainty". After these analysis, the definition of flood risk has been put forward. In this definition, flood risk can be shown by a complete set of triples and the elements of each triple have represented not only the important aspectS of flood risk, but also two types of uncertainty of it, random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty. Then the definition has been applied in the risk assessment of flood risk. At last, the problems and future have been discussed.