| 云南省Palmer旱度模式的建立——2010年干旱灾害特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王佳津,孟耀斌,张朝,史培军.云南省Palmer旱度模式的建立——2010年干旱灾害特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2012(1):190-197. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王佳津 孟耀斌 张朝 史培军 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作交流项目(40821140354);国家重点实验室专题基金项目(10K05ESPCT) |
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| 摘 要： | 2010年春季云南省发生了特大干旱灾害,造成了严重的经济损失。按照Palmer旱度模式的思路,利用云南省的气象和土壤数据,建立了云南省的Palmer旱度模式。通过将计算得到的Palmer指数值与云南省的实际旱涝灾情历史记录进行对比,发现所建立的Palmer旱度模式能够较好地反映云南省的旱涝情况。基于该模式对2010年云南特大干旱灾害进行了特征分析,结果表明,此次干旱灾害是云南省30年来干旱变化过程中的一次突变。而且结果显示,在2010年的云南干旱灾害中,严重干旱地区整体呈现东西走向的空间分布,极端干旱地区主要分布在云南省的东南部。
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| 关 键 词： | 云南省 干旱灾害 Palmer旱度模式 特征分析 |
Establishment of Palmer drought severity model for Yunnan Province: analysis of characteristics of drought disaster in 2010 |
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| WANG Jiajin,MENG Yaobin,ZHANG Zhao,SHI Peijun.Establishment of Palmer drought severity model for Yunnan Province: analysis of characteristics of drought disaster in 2010[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012(1):190-197. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jiajin MENG Yaobin ZHANG Zhao SHI Peijun |
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| Institution: | (State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology,Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, MOE,Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China) |
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| Abstract: | An extraordinary drought disaster occurred in the spring of the year 2010 and brought about severe economic loss.Following the thinking of Palmer drought severity model and using Yunnan Province’s meteorological and soil data,the corresponding drought model for Yunnan Province was established.Through the comparison of the Palemer index values with the calculation and the historical records of the actual drought/flood in Yunnan Province,it is discovered that the established Palmer drought severity model could reflect drought/flood situation well.The analyses of the characteristics of the extraordinary drought disaster in 2010 using this model show that,this drought disaster is an abrupt change of the recent 30-year drought process,and the severe drought area displays a spatial distribution of an east-west trend.The extreme drought area mainly distributes in the southeast part of Yunnan Province. |
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| Keywords: | Yunnan Province drought disaster Palmer drought severity model characteristics analysis |
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