福建省农业气象灾害灰色评价与预测

将灰色系统理论引入到农业气象灾害的评价与预测中。根据福建省1980~2004年主要气象受灾面积资料,构造完全受灾参考序列,应用灰色关联分析得到每个年份的关联度,依照关联度排序结果对农业气象灾害进行等级划分,得到5个农业气象灾害重灾年份,发现重灾年的出现大约以4年为一个周期。最后用这5个重灾年组成新序列,运用GM(1,1)模型对未来重灾年份进行灾变预测,结果表明,2008~2009年福建省将是农业气象重灾年份。

Grey Valuation and Forecast of Agro-meteorological Disasters in Fujian Province

The grey system theory is introduced to the assessment and forecast of the agro-meteorological disasters.Based on the statistical data of disaster area from 1985 to 2004 in Fujian province,annual correlation degree is obtained by grey relational analysis.Agro-meteorological disasters are graded and 5 heavy agro-meteorological disaster years are sorted out based on incidence sequence.It is found that the recurrence period of heavy meteorological disaster is about 4 years.A new series is formulated by 5 heavy meteorological disaster years.Based on GM(1,1) model,the future heavy meteorological disaster years are predicted.The results show that 2008 and 2009 will be heavy meteorological disaster years in Fujian.