| 时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 汪孔政.时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究[J].灾害学,2007,22(2):18-20. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 汪孔政 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 浙江大学,土木系,浙江,杭州,310027 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 滑坡的位移量发展受地质条件、气候环境以及人类活动等多种因素的影响,变化复杂,通常难以用固定参数的数学模型准确表达。时变参数模型的模型参数随时间变化,能够描述更为复杂的函数关系。将时变参数模型应用于滑坡位移量预测,通过对比发现,时变参数模型有望提高滑坡位移量的预测精度。
|
| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 时变参数 灰色模型 位移预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811X（2007）02-0018-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-30 |
On the Application of Time-Varying Parameter Model to Forecasting Displacement of Landslide |
| |
| Wang Kongzheng.On the Application of Time-Varying Parameter Model to Forecasting Displacement of Landslide[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2007,22(2):18-20. |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Kongzheng |
| |
| Institution: | Civil Department, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The displacement change of landslide is influenced by various factors,such as the geology,weathering,humanity activity, etc.Its change rule is complicated and difficult to be described by a model with fixed parameter.The time-varying model has parameters which change with time,so it can describe more complicated function.In this paper,the time-varying parameter grey model is used to forecast the displacement values of landslide.It is showed that the model is of high forecast precision by comparing the forecast result with the observed values and the forecast result of traditional grey model. |
| |
| Keywords: | landslide time-varying parameter grey model displacement forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
