| 登陆中国台风灾害损失预评估模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵飞,廖永丰,张妮娜,张云霞,陈阳斯琪.登陆中国台风灾害损失预评估模型研究[J].灾害学,2011,26(2):81-85. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵飞 廖永丰 张妮娜 张云霞 陈阳斯琪 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 民政部国家减灾中心,北京,100022
2. 首都师范大学,北京,10089 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑项目“亚洲巨灾综合风险评估技术及应用研究” |
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| 摘 要： | 整理了2000-2008年登陆中国且灾情记录完整的34个台风案例,建立案例集;基于模糊数学法建立了台风灾害损失预评估模型。选择8项影响因子作为模型输入指标,利用层次分析法确定影响因子权重,计算案例集中每个台风的综合评价指数;通过对综合评价指数与受灾人口、农作物受灾面积及直接经济损失等典型灾情指标进行拟合;通过适当调整影响因子权重,拟合得出最优幂函数回归方程,从而实现对台风灾情的定量预评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风灾害 模糊数学 预评估 影响因子 中国 |
A Pre-evaluation Model for Typhoon Disasters in China |
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| Zhao Fei,Liao Yongfeng,Zhang Nina,Zhang Yunxia,Chen Yangsiqi.A Pre-evaluation Model for Typhoon Disasters in China[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2011,26(2):81-85. |
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| Authors: | Zhao Fei Liao Yongfeng Zhang Nina Zhang Yunxia Chen Yangsiqi |
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| Institution: | Zhao Fei1,Liao Yongfeng1,Zhang Nina1,Zhang Yunxia1 and Chen Yangsiqi2 (1.National Disaster Reduction Center of China,Beijing 100022,China,2.Capital Normal University,Beijing 100089,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to establish a collection,34 typhoons with complete disaster record occurred from 2000 to 2008 are arranged.A model for pre-evaluation of losses from typhoon disasters is established on the basis of fuzzy mathematical method.Choosing 8 effective factors as input indexes of the model,and determining impact factor weights by analytic hierarchy process,composite evaluation indexes of each typhoon in the collection are calculated,which are then fitted with typical index of disaster loss as affected pop... |
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| Keywords: | typhoon disaster fuzzy mathematics pre-evaluation impact factor China |
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