| 极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 李青春,曹晓彦,郑祚芳,徐影.极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响评估[J].灾害学,2006,21(1):13-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李青春 曹晓彦 郑祚芳 徐影 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局,北京城市气象研究所,北京,100089
2. 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部科技基础条件平台建设计划;北京市自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用北京心肺血管疾病研究所提供的1994-2000年北京城近郊区的七个监测点的以25-74岁人群为监测对象的25余万居民中全死因死亡事件监测数据、同期北京观象台的逐日气温观测数据、月平均气候资料，对极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响进行分析，得出对城市人群死亡影响的极端气温阈值及其长序列的时间线形变率，采用最优子集回归方法建立预测评估模型，根据气候模式对未来气候变化的预测结果，对未来北京城市人群死亡的影响进行定量评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端气温 城市人群死亡 评估模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811X（2006）01-0013-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年10月24 |
Evaluation of Extreme Temperature Effect on Urban Human Death |
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| LI Qing-chun,CAO Xiao-yan,ZHEN Zuo-fang,XU Ying.Evaluation of Extreme Temperature Effect on Urban Human Death[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(1):13-17. |
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| Authors: | LI Qing-chun CAO Xiao-yan ZHEN Zuo-fang XU Ying |
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| Institution: | 1. Beijing Institute of Urban Meteorology CMA, Beijing, 100089; 2. National Climate Center CMA, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | By the use of the death data from the investigation among over 250, 000 people with ages from 25 years old to 74 years old in the period of 1994-2000 in Beijing urban and suburb areas provided by Beijing Institute of Cardiopulmonary and Vascular Disease, and the daily and monthly mean climate data in Beijing, the effects of extreme temperature on urban human death are analyzed. The threshold of extreme temperature effect on urban human death and the linear variability of long series are calculated. Then the forecast and evaluation model is established according to the optimal subset regression method. And also, the future effects of extreme temperature on human death in Beijing are evaluated. |
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| Keywords: | extreme temperature urban human death evaluation model |
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