| 陕西省大旱年发生概率及可能发生的年份预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 邢东兴,孙虎,延军平.陕西省大旱年发生概率及可能发生的年份预测[J].灾害学,2004,19(1):69-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邢东兴 孙虎 延军平 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西,西安,710062 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用数理统计方法及三元、四元、五元可公度法分别推算了21世纪陕西省大旱年发生的概率和预测了该省未来30多年间可能发生大旱灾的年份.运算结果显示:陕西省在21世纪的100年中,大旱年发生次数至少为一次、两次、三次、四次、五次的概率分别为94.52%、86.65%、72.91%、54.78%、35.57%;在未来30多年间陕西省有可能在2006年、2008年、2024年、2031年发生重大旱灾.
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| 关 键 词： | 陕西 大旱年 概率推算 年份预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811X(2004)01-0069-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年6月9日 |
Probability of Severe Drought and the Forecast of Drought Year in Shaanxi Province |
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| XING Dong-xing,SUN Hu,YAN Jun-ping.Probability of Severe Drought and the Forecast of Drought Year in Shaanxi Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2004,19(1):69-72. |
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| Authors: | XING Dong-xing SUN Hu YAN Jun-ping |
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| Abstract: | By use of mathematical statistics method and commensurability of ternary, quaternion and quintuple, the probability of big drought in Shaanxi province in the 21 century is calculated and the years of severe drought in Shaanxi in the coming 30 years are forecasted. The results show that, in the 21 century, the probability of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 big drought(s) in Shaanxi province is respectively 94.52%, 86.65%, 72.91%, 54.78% and 35.57%. In the coming 30 years, severe droughts may occur in 2006, 2008, 2024 and 2031 in Shaanxi province. |
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| Keywords: | Shanaxi year of severe drought statistical calculation year forecast |
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