东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅰ)——热量指数与玉米产量

利用东北地区典型站点1961-2005年气象资料和东北3省1961-2005年玉米产量资料,计算分析了东北不同地区玉米热量指数的变化趋势以及与产量的关系。结果表明：受气候变暖的影响,辽宁省热量指数出现下降的趋势,而吉林省和黑龙江省的热量指数出现显著升高的趋势,气候变暖对吉林省和黑龙江省玉米生产有有利的影响。热量指数较好地反映了玉米产量与环境温度的相关关系。因此,可通过对玉米热量指数的预测进行农作物低温冷害预测,为农业生产防灾减灾提供决策依据。

Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅰ)——Heat Index and Corn Yield

The change tendency of corn heat index and its correlation with com yield in different provinces in Northeastern China is calculated and analyzed by using the meteorological data of typical stations in 1961-2005 and corn yield in 3 provinces. The results show that the heat index is of a decreasing tendency in Iiaoning province, because of climate warming. But the heat index indicates an increasing tendency in Jillian and Heilongjiang provinces due to the beneficial influence of climate warming on corn production in Jillian and Heilongjiang provinces. The heat index can fairly reflect the correlation between corn yield and environmental temperature. Therefore, low temperature disaster prediction by com heat index forecast can provide basis for decision making of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation.