基于理论播种期的油葵花期雨害风险模型——以环渤海地区为例

随着环渤海盐碱地区油葵引种品种的不断增多,种植面积不断扩大,部分地区盲目引种现象时有发生,油葵开花期与雨季同期干扰花期授粉,严重影响了油葵产量。通过分析油葵播种期的关键因子（稳定通过10℃的初终日）30年的概率密度分布,并结合实际播期定义了理论播种期;在此基础上利用连续3 d降雨概率密度分布构建了花期雨害风险模型。应用此模型得到的环渤海地区早熟、中早熟、中晚熟油葵花期低雨害风险的适宜播种期与当地现实最佳播种期间存在较高的吻合度。研究可为农作物适宜播种期的选择及减轻灾害风险提供理论参考。

Rain Disaster Risk Model of Oil Sunflower during Florescence Based on Theoretical Sowing Dates——Taking the Bohai Sea Area as an Example

With increase in the varieties of oil sunflower and planting area in the alkali-saline area around the Bohai Sea,phenomenon of blind introduction of oil sunflower in some districts and interference with flowering pollination due to sunflower florescence synchronizing with rainy season seriously affect the yield of oil sunflower. Through the analysis on the probability density distribution of key factors of oil sunflower sowing period ( stably getting through 10℃ of the beginning and ending dates) in 30 years, the theoretical sowing period is defined according to the actual sowing period.Then, rain disaster risk model of the flowering period is developed by use of rainfall probability density distribution of 3 consecutive days. The application of this model indicates that the suitable sowing dates with low rain risk in florescence of precocious, mid-early maturing and medium-late maturing sunflowers around the Bohai Sea fairly coincides with local actual optimal sowing dates. The study provides the theoretical reference for selecting suitable sowing dates of crops and for mitigating disaster risk.