G2京津塘高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数的关系

通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年(2007年3月至2010年2月)逐日逐时万辆车流的交通事故灾害和交通流量及气象要素资料,并将万辆车流的交通事故灾害(交通事故灾害与交通流量之商)与同步气象综合指数进行日变化相关分析；结果表明:平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害的日变化最高峰出现在05时,年平均高峰值高达2.34起·辆-1·10-4；年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均万辆车流的交通事故灾害与同步气象综合指数均呈正抛物线的偏右侧相关,即万辆车流的交通事故灾害随气象综合指数的加大而增多；统计学检验(R＞Rα=0.01和F＞Fa=0.01)效果很好.四个季节的万辆车流的交通事故灾害与气象综合指数相关的系数高达0.7781～0.8537.为了更好地将自动气象监测信息服务于高速公路交通安全,在分析成果的基础上设计出了高速公路万辆车流的交通事故灾害的气象综合指数风险等级指标,以期为高速公路交通安全提供客观的科学依据.

The Traffic Accidents of Huabei Freeway and its Relation to the Meteorological Composite Index

Based on investigation of traffic accidents,traffic flow and meteorological factors data of Huabei Freeway from Mar.2007 to Feb.2010,the diurnal variation of traffic accidents is presented at 5 am,and the peak of annul average could reach to 2.34 times.The correlation between the traffic accidents among one million of traffic flow and the same period of the meteorological composite index during annul,spring,summer,autumn and winter present parabola,and the correlation coefficients account for 0.778 1 to 0.853 7,satisfy statistics verifying(R>Rα=0.05 and F>Fα=0.05).In order to better use the meteorological monitoring information and to improve the safety of freeway,the meteorological composite risk level index is designed for supplying scientific grounds.