林业生物灾害预警的内涵

林业生物灾害预警是我国林业有害生物预防体系的主要内容,但一直以来对林业生物灾害这一概念没有一个统一的定义,处于“各自表述”的状态.在参考国内外林业生物灾害预警研究的基础上,对一些相关概念做了厘清,提出了一个林业生物灾害预警系统的框架.该系统由4部分构成:分析潜在威胁、检定真实威胁、警情发布和响应威胁.通过有害生物风险分析和发生预测来判断潜在的威胁；通过威胁勘察、监测和检疫措施来检定真实的威胁；然后评估威胁大小.提出了一个度量威胁大小的指标——发生指数,它既考虑了有害生物的种群密度(或病情指数),又考虑了发生面积.发生指数可在当年有害生物发生结束后根据实际发生情况计算,但在预警时必须根据预警指标(立地指数、林分指数、气象指数等)来推算.根据推算的发生指数,将警情分级,向经营者和公众发布警报.同时,相关部门根据相应的预案进行威胁响应.对预案执行情况应进行评估,必要时进行预案修订.

The Connotation of Early Warning System for Forest Pest Hazard

Early warning of forest pest hazard plays an important role in forest pest control in China.However,there is no wide acceptable definition for this concept yet.Based on both domestic and overseas information,some relevant vague concepts are cleared,and a component module of early warning system(EWS) for forest pest hazard is proposed.The EWS comprises four parts: potential threats analysis,actual threats verification,alerts releasing and respond.Potential threats can be identified by either pest risk analysis(PRA) or outbreak prediction,or by the both,while actual threats can be detected by threats survey,monitoring or quarantine.Then,assessment of the threats follows.An index,outbreak index(OI),is presented to measure the hazard.OI is an index combining population density(or disease index) and infested area,which can be calculated with the real data after outbreak or has to be inferred with warning index(e.g.site index,stand index,meteorological index,etc.) before outbreak.The alert can be classified into various grades according to the inferred OI and then released to both the manager of farm and the public.At the same time,response should be carried out in terms of the preparedness.The effect of response must be evaluated and the preparedness ought to be revised if necessary.