京津冀突发事件总体应急预案量化评价

应急预案是应对突发事件工作的重要抓手，加强应急预案管理已成为新时期我国各级政府应急管理工作的重要任务。为提高京津冀应急预案质量，通过构建PMC指数模型来评价该地区突发事件总体应急预案，为预案优化提供建议。选取京津冀5项代表性突发事件总体应急预案为研究样本，首先，基于对预案文本的挖掘与分析以及借鉴已有研究关于应急预案评价指标的设定，建立了包含9个一级变量和57个二级变量的评价指标体系。其次，通过测算得出各个预案的PMC指数分值，据此对每项预案进行分析与优化。结果表明，5项预案的PMC指数均值为7.89,根据评级划分标准，5项预案总体表现良好，其中2项等级为优秀，3项等级为良好。除了在事件分类分级标准、恢复与重建这两个一级变量上没有失分外，在其他一级变量上都有失分，具体可以依据二级变量在这几个方面实施优化。

Quantitative Evaluation on the Overall Emergency Plans of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Emergency plan is important for dealing with emergencies,and strengthening the management of emergency plan has become an important task of the emergency management for government in the new era.In order to improve the quality of emergency plans in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the PMC-Index model is constructed to evaluate the overall emergency plan in this region,and to provide suggestions for plan optimization.The PMC-Index model is constructed to evaluate the overall emergency plans of the region,and the suggestions for optimizing the plans are provided.This paper selects five representative emergency plans in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as research samples.Firstly,based on the mining and analysis of the text of the emergency plans and referring to the existing research on the evaluation index of the emergency plan,the evaluation index system,including 9 first-level variables and 57 second-level variables,is established.Finally,the PMC-Index of each plan is calculated,and each plan is analyzed and optimized.The average PMC-Index of the five overall emergency plans is 7.89,which shows good performance on the whole.And two of them are excellent and three of them are good.The two first-level variables,standard for event classification and grading,recovery and reconstruction,are no scores lost,but there are scores lost in other first-level variables.It can be improved in these aspects according to the second-level variables.