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| 东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法 | |
| 引用本文： | 郭建平,陈玥煜,庄立伟.东北玉米热量指数预测方法研究(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)预测方法[J].灾害学,2010,25(1):23-26. |
| 作者姓名： | 郭建平 陈玥煜 庄立伟 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081;广东省气象局,广东,广州,510080 3. 国家气象中心,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题 |
| 摘 要： | GM(1,1)是开展时间序列环境要素变化趋势预测的有效方法之一。通过对东北地区玉米热量指数的分析,建立了热量指数时间变化趋势的GM(1,1)预测模型,各模型的平均预测精度虽低于逐步回归统计模型,但也都达91%以上,可以应用该模型的预测结果指导农业生产。 |
| 关 键 词： | 东北地区 玉米 热量指数 预测 GM(1 1)模型 |
Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)Forecasting Model |
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| Guo Jianping,Chen Yueyi,Zhuang Liwei.Study on Forecasting Methods of Corn Heat Index in Northeastern China(Ⅲ)——GM(1,1)Forecasting Model[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,25(1):23-26. | |
| Authors: | Guo Jianping Chen Yueyi Zhuang Liwei |
| Institution: | Guo Jianping1,Chen Yueyi1,2 , Zhuang Liwei3(1.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China,2.Guangdong Meteorological Bureau,Guangzhou 510080,3.National Meteorological Center,China) |
| Abstract: | GM(1,1) is one of the effective methods for forecasting changing tendency of environmental factors.On the basis of corn heat index analysis in Northeastern China,the GM(1,1) forecasting model of corn heat index changing tendency is set up.The mean precision of each model is lower than that of stepwise regression models,but the mean precision is higher than 91%.The forecasting results of GM(1,1) can be used to instruct agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | northeastern China corn heat index forecast GM(1 1)Forecasting Model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |