Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories |
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Authors: | Zbigniew Nahorski Joanna Horabik Matthias Jonas |
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Institution: | (1) Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw, Poland;(2) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria |
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Abstract: | A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties
in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions
for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits
granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is
thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty. |
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Keywords: | greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty compliance with Kyoto Protocol risk of noncompliance undershooting emissions trading effective tradable permits |
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