Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d. |
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Authors: | Harald Sverdrup Salim Belyazid Bengt Nihlgård Lars Ericson |
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Institution: | 1. Chemical Engineering, Lund University, SE-221 00, Lund, Sweden 2. Plant Ecology and Systematics, Lund University, SE-221 00, Lund, Sweden 3. Genetics and Ecology, Ume? University, SE-901 87, Ume?, Sweden
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Abstract: | The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial
ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification,
soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants,
above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation
plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden,
four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such
as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor
experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the
ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and
operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management
on plant biodiversity in forested areas. |
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Keywords: | ForSAFE model Vegetation Biodiversity Soil Climate change Pollution |
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