Establishing ozone flux–response relationships for winter wheat: Analysis of uncertainties based on data for UK and Polish genotypes

The work outlined in this paper had three objectives. The first was to explore the effects of ozone pollution on grain yield and quality of commercially-grown winter wheat cultivars. The second was to derive a stomatal ozone flux model for winter wheat and compare with those already developed for spring wheat. The third was to evaluate exposure- versus flux–response approaches from a risk assessment perspective, and explore the implications of genetic variation in modelled ozone flux.Fifteen winter wheat cultivars were grown in open-top chambers where they were exposed to four levels of ozone. During fumigation, stomatal conductance measurements were made over the lifespan of the flag leaf across a range of environmental conditions. Although significant intra-specific variation in ‘ozone sensitivity’ (in terms of impacts on yield) was identified, yield was inversely related (R² = 0.63, P < 0.001) to the accumulated hourly averaged ozone exposure above 40 ppb during daylight hours (AOT40) across the dataset. The adverse effect of ozone on yield was principally due to a decline in seed weight. Algorithms defining the influence of environmental variables on stomatal uptake were subtly different from those currently in use, based on data for spring wheat, to map ozone impacts on pan-European cereal yield. Considerable intra-specific variation in phenological effects was identified. This meant that an ‘average behaviour’ had to be derived which reduced the predictive capability of the derived stomatal flux model (R² = 0.49, P < 0.001, 15 cultivars included). Indeed, given the intra-specific variability encountered, the flux model that was derived from the full dataset was no better in predicting O₃ impacts on wheat yield than was the AOT40 index. The study highlights the need to use ozone risk assessment tools appropriate to specific vegetation types when modelling and mapping ozone impacts at the regional level.