Neural networks and periodic components used in air quality forecasting

Forecasting of air quality parameters is one topic of air quality research today due to the health effects caused by airborne pollutants in urban areas. The work presented here aims at comparing two principally different neural network methods that have been considered as potential tools in that area and assessing them in relation to regression with periodic components. Self-organizing maps (SOM) represent a form of competitive learning in which a neural network learns the structure of the data. Multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) have been shown to be able to learn complex relationships between input and output variables. In addition, the effect of removing periodic components is evaluated with respect to neural networks. The methods were evaluated using hourly time series of NO₂ and basic meteorological variables collected in the city of Stockholm in 1994–1998. The estimated values for forecasting were calculated in three ways: using the periodic components alone, applying neural network methods to the residual values after removing the periodic components, and applying only neural networks to the original data. The results showed that the best forecast estimates can be achieved by directly applying a MLP network to the original data, and thus, that a combination of the periodic regression method and neural algorithms does not give any advantage over a direct application of neural algorithms.