湖北省能源消费CO2与大气污染物协同减排研究

以2015年为基准年,基于拓展的STIRPAT模型预测2025年湖北省能源消费CO2和主要大气污染物排放量.通过设置基准(记为BAU)情景、低碳(记为LC)情景和强化低碳(记为ELC)情景3种控制情景,测算CO2和主要大气污染物的减排量,并运用污染物减排量交叉弹性法评价了CO2减排对主要大气污染物的协同效应.结果表明,...

Research on synergistic emission reduction between CO2 and air pollutants of energy consumption in Hubei Province

Based on the expanded STIRPAT model,CO₂ and major air pollutants emissions from energy consumption of Hubei Province in 2025 were forcasted with 2015 as the base year.The reduction emissions of CO₂ and major air pollutants were predicted under the three setted scenarios:business as usual(BAU)scenario,low carbon(LC)scenario and enhanced low-carbon(ELC)scenario,respectively.Pollutant reduction cross-elasticity was used to assess the synergistic effect of CO₂ emission reduction on major air pollutants.The results showed that population and the proportion of the secondary industry were key driving factors affecting energy consumption of Hubei Province.Per capita GDP and urbanization rate promoted energy consumption,while energy consumption intensity had a negative effect on energy consumption.For 1.000%change in population,per capita GDP,the proportion of the secondary industry,energy consumption intensity and urbanization rate showed 1.273%,0.215%,1.161%,0.014%and 0.096%change in energy consumption in Hubei Province,respectively.Up to 2025,energy consumption would reduce by 10 million t(measured as coal equivalents)under ELC scenario,and the anticipated emissions of CO₂,SO₂,NO_x,PM₁₀ would be respectively reduced by 14 million,2.06×10⁴,2.33×10⁴ and 9.30×10³ t.Industry and construction sector contributed the most to the synergistic reduction of CO₂ and major air pollutants,followed by energy production and processing conversion sector.Both the LC scenario and the ELC scenario policy had synergistic emission reduction effects on CO₂ and air pollutants.