Improved light extinction reconstruction in interagency monitoring of protected visual environments

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Regional Haze Rule (RHR) in 1999. The RHR default goal is to reduce haze linearly from the baseline period of 2000 through 2004 to natural background in 2064. EPA-recommended method for estimating baseline and natural haze uses the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) light extinction formula. The IMPROVE formula predicts light extinction from measured aerosol chemical concentrations and estimates of the relative humidity multiplier. On average, the IMPROVE formula overpredicts 6156 nephelometer days (24-hr average measured particle light scattering, bsp) of data by 25%. A new IMPROVED method that reconstructs light extinction using a concentration power law model overpredicts these nephelometer days of data by just 2%. Ignoring the 20% lowest light scattering days, this new IMPROVED formula has a 3% underprediction bias over the 4925 highest nephelometer days with light scattering > or =8 inverse megameters. For comparison, the IMPROVE formula has a 12% overprediction bias for the same days. The IMPROVE formula overprediction averages 77%, 27%, 17%, 9%, and -5% broken down by quintile from lowest to highest nephelometer measured light scattering days. The new IMPROVED formula average overprediction is 21%, -5%, -5%, -2%, and 0%. So, agreement between measured and predicted light scattering improves by modifying the current IMPROVE light extinction formula.