An Air Quality Data Analysis System for Interrelating Effects,Standards, and Needed Source Reductions: Part 8. An Effective Mean O3 Crop Reduction Mathematical Model

A plant injury mathematical model, applied previously to acute and chronic leaf injury data, is used here to model National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN) data for 15 cultivars and to calculate species parameters from the cultivar analyses. Percent crop yield reduction is estimated as a function of a new parameter, the effective mean O₃ concentration: m_e = (Σ c_h ^?1/v)/n]^?v, where c_h is the hourly average ambient O₃ concentration for each daytime hour (defined here as 9:00 A.M.–4:00 P.M., always standard time) of data available at an air sampling site for summer (defined here as June 1–August 31), n is the total number of such available hours, and v is an exposure time-concentration parameter, calculated here to be approximately –0.376. Crop yield reduction for soybean is calculated here as z = 0.478 In (tm_e ^2-66) – 0.42, where z is the Gaussian transform of percent crop reduction, t is the hours of exposure (525 h is used here; 7 h/day for 75 days), and In indicates that the natural logarithm is taken of the quantity within parentheses. Crop yield reductions for seven plant species are estimated with similar equations for each of the 1824 site-years of 1981–1983 hourly O₃ concentration data available in the National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). County-average effective mean O₃ concentrations are indicated by shading on a U.S. map. State-average O₃ parameters and estimated percent crop yield reductions are tabulated. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for O₃ specifies that, on the average, the second highest daily maximum 1-h average O₃ concentration in a year shall not exceed 0.12 ppm. For years 1981-1983,71% of the NADB sites recorded annual second highest daily maximum 1-h average O3 concentrations below 0.125 ppm (for summer daytime hours). Ambient O₃ concentrations reduced the total U.S. crop yield an estimated 5% for years 1981–1983. (Summer, daytime, and all acronyms are always used herein as defined above.)