Near-field dispersion modeling for regulatory applications

This paper evaluates the application of dispersion models to estimate near-field pollutant concentrations in two case studies. The Industrial Source Complex Short-Term Model (ISCST3) was evaluated with hexavalent chromium measurements collected within 100 m of two facilities in Barrio Logan, San Diego, CA. ISCST3 provided reasonable estimates for higher pollutant concentrations but underestimated lower concentrations. To understand the observed distribution of concentrations in Barrio Logan, a recently conducted tracer experiment was analyzed. The tracer, sulfur hexafluoride, was released at ambient temperature from an urban facility at the University of California at Riverside, and concentrations were measured within 20 m of the source. Modeling results indicated that Industrial Source Complex-Plume Rise Model Enhancement and American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model-Plume Rise Model Enhancement overestimated high concentrations and underestimated low concentrations. A diagnostic study with a simple Gaussian dispersion model that incorporated site-specific meteorology was used to evaluate model results. This study found that incorporating lateral meandering for nonbuoyant urban plumes in Gaussian dispersion models could improve concentration estimates even when downwash is not considered. Incorporating a meandering component in ISCST3 resulted in improvements in estimating hexavalent chromium concentrations in Barrio Logan. Credible near-source concentration estimates depend on accurate characterization of emissions, onsite micrometeorology, and a method to account for lateral meandering in the near field.